April 24, 2005

Perception As Reality

Within my circle, most of us are doing well, with 2 families suffering the affects of being laid off due to a weak telecommunications sector and health issues.

Blacks' economic optimism overtaken by pessimism


Six and a half years ago, the African-Americans in Maryland who thought the economy was improving outnumbered by 5 to 1 those who said the economy was worsening.

Today, the numbers are almost reversed, with blacks who are pessimistic outnumbering optimistic ones more than 3 to 1.

Experts say the shift in The Sun Poll of Maryland voters might have relatively little to do with the state's economic health - possibly relating more to state and national politics and whether African-Americans who tend to vote Democratic have confidence in a Republican-dominated government.

From 1998 through 2003, African-Americans in Maryland have been generally more optimistic than whites about the health of the state's economy. But for the past two years, blacks have been more likely to say the economy is getting worse, a recent Sun poll found.

The current survey, conducted April 11-13 among 1,000 likely voters in the 2006 Maryland gubernatorial election, revealed 42 percent of blacks said the economy is worsening, while 12 percent of blacks say it's getting better. The margin of error is 3.2 percent, though it is slightly larger for individual demographic groups.

There's no simple answer to explain the grim economic outlook held by Maryland's African-American population.

Theories range from disparities in educational attainment - which can result in blacks earning less, on average, than whites - to black unemployment figures, which have been consistently higher than the Maryland average.

In 2003, Maryland's average black unemployment rate was 6.7 percent, nearly twice the whites' 3.6 percent, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

"I guess as long as you have a job, you're doing OK, but if you don't have a job, it's not good," said Michael Small, 44, a Maryland Transit Administration bus driver from Baltimore, who added that he thinks the economy could be doing better.

But some economists suggest attitudes have more to do with politics than economic indicators such as unemployment and job growth.

"In 1998, we had a Democratic governor and a Democratic president, and today we have neither," said Anirban Basu, chief executive officer of Sage Policy Group, a Baltimore economic and policy consulting firm.

Posted by at April 24, 2005 04:15 PM | TrackBack