I said a couple of years ago, and sometime this year that I thought that Bush would be lucky to get 9%. I don't think that anymore. I believe Bush should do better than he did last time out, better than his father, better than Reagan. In fact I don't recall Ford's numbers, but I would be surprised if he did worse than Ford.
In talking to my relatives I've found a lot more support than I expected to find...and this has changed my opinion. The root of their support is spiritual. I don't think they support his policy on Iraq. I don't think they support his ideas about the economy. But the idea that Bush is religious, strong in his convictions, and does not waver in the face of adversity, is very attractive to some black voters.
Of course this could all change if the Republicans use heavy handed tactics to suppress the black vote. But if they just use SOFT tactics, I'm thinking he's going to get more black votes than we've seen in some time. Very bad news for me...but hopefully the end result is more dialogue about these issues over time.
I've got two aunts, an uncle, and three cousins who plan to vote for Bush. One uncle is leaning toward Bush. None are Republican. Even I (an independent) am voting for a Republican president, for the first time ever.
The #1 issue that my relatives cite is gay marriage. It burns them up that it's compared to the civil rights movement. Others cite abortion, Kerry's gun control stance (two of my relatives like to hunt), how he treated vets upon his return from Vietnam (two of my relatives are vets, one is currently in the military). In general, they like Bush on moral issues (I prefer Bush on economic issues).
Bush won't get the 18% that he's currently got in both the JCPES and New York Times polls. Yet as tight as this race looks, if he gets 15% then Kerry is in big trouble. Perhaps even 12%.
Posted by: molotov at October 21, 2004 03:30 PMI've got a bet with a professor at Emory that he'll get more than 9%. This is a no-brainer for me. Michael Dawson has run his own numbers out of Harvard, but I'm willing to bet that race-of-interviewer effects stand out here. Blacks will underreport their likelihood of voting for Bush if they perceive the interviewer to be black as well.
BUT I don't think these numbers will mean much as far as the election goes for two reasons:
1. I expect subtle forms of vote suppression to be at work in urban areas. Four words: Long. Lines. Past. 8pm.
The Republicans (wrongly) will either keep these people from voting, or will throw these votes out. The Bush supporters shouldn't be that different demographically from other black folk, so whatever suppression tactics at work will hit them too.
2. We're still talking about a fifteenth of a tenth. Nader voters are a more important bloc.
Posted by: Lester Spence at October 22, 2004 02:29 PMDemocratic county clerks typically control poll situations in urban areas, where most blacks live. So it's Democrats' fault for any long lines.
Nader voters will be a factor. However, Nader hasn't gotten on many state ballots, since Democrats insist that he stick to the rules (while wanting special treatment for themselves). A 5-percentage-point swing among black voters for Bush will cost Kerry big time.
Posted by: molotov at October 22, 2004 05:47 PMWhen you say that democrats typically control the poll situation, what exactly do you mean? Better question, where does the money to run elections come from?
A five percent vote swing among whites would crush either candidate. A five percent vote swing among blacks makes the race closer.
In a mythical setup with 100,000 voters, you are talking about approximately 5000 votes. Looking at it in one way that makes the difference. But taking into account vote suppression and Nader even? Nope.
Makes for good dialogue though.
Posted by: Lester Spence at October 23, 2004 01:54 PM
hit it right on the head...
for those who thought the gay marriage issue is/was dead need to think again.
blacks (and many latinos) will vote for bush simply because gay marriage is considered a religious abomination. they've prioritized the issues and this is at the top...many know that bush's domestic polices and foreign policies are seriously lacking. but, religious values are more important...and gay marriage is seen as more of a "domestic" threat than anything else.
unfortunately, i don't think it will change even with "heavy-handed tactics to suppress the black vote."
Posted by: neco at October 20, 2004 05:33 PM