Ok. So my man Cobb weighs in on the black vote issue.
Here's the real deal.
Black political behavior has been shown to be tied closely to the "fate of the race." When African Americans enter the voting booth, what they're thinking to themselves is "Hm. Which of these candidates is best for black PEOPLE?" This being an effective shortcut (often anyway) to getting at which candidate is best for that INDIVIDUAL black person.
Assuming that there is significant support for vouchers among working class black folk in particular, we have a long road to hoe if we are to take this factoid and then cast it as an opportunity the GOP as it is now constituted can take advantage of.
There are a whole host of policy issues that blacks support that the GOP doesn't seem to. Whether we're talking about affirmative action, a minimum wage, getting out of Iraq...on average blacks support very liberal policy preferences. Remember that there are a long list of social policies the GOP supports that conservative blacks do as well (the death penalty for example), but this hasn't led to an appreciable shift.
There has been talk about a "generation shift." In as much as the country has moved to the right it shouldn't suprise anyone that blacks have moved also. But remember, African Americans are the furthest to the left of any identifiable voting constituency. Moving to the right to them means they give on an issue like vouchers, but that is about IT.
For the GOP to move black voters, the change has to come from the GOP...the GOP has to moderate its views.
(Folks tend to forget Florida, and their treatment by the GOP in places like Saint Louis. This suprises me...there is no way in hell black folk will forget. And while an argument could be made that the GOP wasn't to blame, I'm thinking this argument has as much likelihood being accepted as the argument that creationism is bunk has of being accepted at the Southern Baptist Convention.)
As an important aside, remember that we're talking about support for the GOP at the NATIONAL LEVEL. There has ALWAYS been a signicant amount of support (greater than 20%) for the GOP at the local level.