Vision Circle

Not War

Every day that passes suggests that this was not a real war, rather politics by other means. Consider the lightness of casualties on the Iraqi side. Estimates were that the Iraqi Army had about a quarter million troops. One would expect that in a rout of a nation's forces, we could expect to see a large number of POWs and KIAs. How indeed could Baghdad fall in three days?

I am coming to believe that General Franks has cut some deals. To his credit, GW Bush spoke out to the military commanders at the beginning of the hostilities. It's difficult to imagine that there were not any number of plans crafted to allow Iraqi commanders to save lives, if not face. Despite all of the 'sharp' fights, Consider the following written less than a week ago from Ramzaj:

The coalition claims of "completely destroying" the "Media" ("Al Madina al Munavvara") and the "Hammurali" Republican Guard divisions of the 2nd Republican Guard Corps received no confirmation. No more than 80 destroyed Iraqi armored vehicles were found along the coalition's route of advance, which corresponds to about 20% of a single standard Iraqi Republican Guard division.

It has been determined that only a few forward elements of the "Hammurali" Division participated in combat while the entire division withdrew toward Baghdad. A single brigade of the "Medina" division was involved in combat. The brigade was split in two groups during fighting and withdrew toward Baghdad and toward Karabela to join the main forces of the ["Medina"] division.

Equally unimpressive are the numbers of the Iraqis captured by the coalition. In four days of advance the US troops captured just over 1,000 people only half of whom, according to the reports by the US field commander, can be considered regular troops of the Iraqi army. There are virtually no abandoned or captured Iraqi combat vehicles. All of this indicates that so far there has been no breakthrough for the coalition; Iraqi troops are not demoralized and the Iraqi command is still in control of its forces.

These troops must have gone somewhere. Perhaps they have gone underground and will reappear later to cause friction. I suspect some have been given a free pass to go north. Are we capturing them? If not, why not? Are we mowing them down as they retreat? I don't hear anything which suggests that we are.

Today, Saddam Hussein is missing. Three weeks ago he was offered asylum. Have the same US Special Forces who supposedly tracked him to one building suddenly lost him permanently? Most of the senior leadership of the Ba'ath party is unaccounted for. Did they disappear as well?

I think the answers to these questions lie not only in Syria to a small extent but in Iraq itself. The Bush Administation has some of the same reasons today that the US had in 1991 to leave sections of the Ba'ath Party intact.

• Shi'ites want an islamic republic. They have suffered under the secular rule of Saddam's Socialists for a generation. Who moderates the Shi'ites?
• The Turks want the Kurds contained and powerless. They promise to invade if the Kurds control Kirkuk or Mosul. Who moderates the Kurds?
• The Russians and French have been doing business with the Ba'athists and have outstanding business with them. Who takes over the Iraqi business?
• Radical Islamicists are using the war as an excuse to further their anarchy. Who stabilizes them?

In the first Gulf War, there was much debate about the wisdom of leaving Saddam Hussein in power. In the new Iraq, the Ba'athists won't disappear, nor will many of Hussein's military brass. They are in a political limbo of Allied arrangement. Let us see when and how they re-emerge.